Timing is everything. That is why the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh outside Tehran on Friday is unlikely to cause an escalation in the region. Fakhrizadeh, a top nuclear scientist, was one of the founders of the Iranian nuclear program, and Iranian officials have already admitted his death is a blow to the country’s defense establishment. However, as Iran eagerly waits for Trump to leave office, the promise of the U.S. rejoining the JCPOA and providing relief from economic sanctions is likely to mitigate any Iranian response.
